Operation Absolute Resolve: US Soldier Arrested for Betting on His Own Secret Mission
It’s the ultimate “insider trading” scandal, but instead of Wall Street, it involves a battlefield in Caracas. U.S. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, was arrested on Thursday and charged with using classified details of a top-secret military operation to line his pockets via the prediction market Polymarket.
The DOJ alleges that Van Dyke didn’t just have a hunch—he had the blueprint for Operation Absolute Resolve, the mission that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026.
A $400,000 Payout from Private Intel
According to the indictment unsealed in the Southern District of New York, Van Dyke was a communications specialist supporting Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC). This role gave him front-row access to the planning and execution of the raid to apprehend Maduro.
While his fellow soldiers were preparing for the high-stakes mission, prosecutors say Van Dyke was busy on his phone. Between December 27, 2025, and the night before the raid, he allegedly:
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Placed 13 specific wagers on Polymarket using the “YES” position for outcomes like “U.S. Forces in Venezuela by January 31” and “Maduro out by January 31.”
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Wagered approximately $33,000 of his own money.
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Turned that into a profit of $409,881 once President Trump officially announced the capture on January 3.
“The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the United States Government… to place bets on the timing and outcome of that very operation. That is clear insider trading,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton.
The Digital Paper Trail
Van Dyke’s attempt at a “get rich quick” scheme was undone by the very transparency of the blockchain-based platform he used. Despite trading under pseudonyms like “Burdensome-Mix,” investigators traced the account back to his personal email.
As online sleuths began flagging the “suspiciously accurate” trades, Van Dyke reportedly panicked. He allegedly:
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Transferred the winnings to a foreign cryptocurrency vault.
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Requested Polymarket delete his account, falsely claiming he lost access to his email.
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Changed his registered ID to a name not associated with his own.
Polymarket itself cooperated with the DOJ, stating on social media: “Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works.”
The Legal Fallout
Van Dyke, an 18-year veteran, now faces a laundry list of federal charges, including:
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Commodities Fraud
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Wire Fraud
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Theft of Nonpublic Government Information
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Unlawful Monetary Transactions
If convicted, the Master Sergeant faces decades in federal prison. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche noted that while prediction markets are a “new phenomenon,” federal laws protecting national security information are as old as the hills—and they definitely apply here.
Is this the start of a new era of “Prediction Market Policing”? With military and government insiders now able to bet on global events in real-time, the DOJ is sending a loud message: the “eye in the sky” is watching the markets just as closely as the battlefield.
