Friday Store-of-Value Brief — November 13, 2026

Bitcoin traded near $74,000, below the $75,600 short-term-holder cost basis. Only about 35% of short-term-holder coins remained profitable.

U.S. spot ETFs recorded approximately $1.6 billion in net outflows over 20 sessions. Roughly two-thirds of recently purchased coins were acquired above the current price, extending to approximately $83,600 — creating potential breakeven selling during a rebound.

Thesis implication: Bitcoin's scarcity has not changed, but current demand is insufficient. Reclaiming $75,600–$77,500 would stabilize the structure; staying below that zone leaves recent institutional and retail buyers underwater.

Counterevidence: Most nearby leveraged-long positions have already been cleared, bids have outweighed asks, and two large-wallet cohorts have started accumulating.

Signal: Watch capital flows — not scarcity narratives. A sustained break below $73,000 would point toward a longer consolidation.

Total stablecoin supply declined by $14.2 billion over 30 days — the fastest contraction since June 2022. Tether traded slightly below $1 while the adjusted Coinbase Bitcoin premium reached its deepest discount since February.

Thesis implication: Stablecoins may be gaining regulatory legitimacy, but their immediate market function remains heavily tied to crypto liquidity. A shrinking supply indicates capital is being redeemed into dollars rather than positioned for deployment on-chain.

Main limitation: Falling supply can reflect several causes, including issuer-specific movements and changes in trading demand. It does not automatically predict another systemic failure.

Crypto lending: No worthwhile institutional report this week improved transparency around loan quality, rehypothecation, lender concentration or liquidation risk. Stablecoin regulation should not be treated as evidence that crypto credit is safer.

The equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the capitalization-weighted index by 5.9 percentage points in October and 3.8 points year to date. Over three and five years annualized, equal weight still trailed by 4.1 and 3.4 percentage points, respectively.

Information technology represented 37% of the capitalization-weighted index versus 14% in equal weight. The benchmark's concentration score was 217.7, compared with 20.2 for equal weight.

Thesis implication: October's rebound broadened beyond the largest technology companies, strengthening the diversification case. But the long-term record still shows how heavily headline S&P returns depend on mega-cap leadership.

Signal: One month of broadening matters; it does not erase several years of concentrated leadership.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined for a fourth consecutive week to 7.11%, from 7.18%. The 15-year rate fell to 6.45%, from 6.57%. One year earlier, those rates averaged 6.24% and 5.49%, respectively.

Thesis implication: The direction is improving, but financing remains far too expensive to restore broad affordability or attractive leveraged returns. Real estate may preserve nominal value while still producing poor liquidity and weak cash flow for new buyers.

Signal: A move below 7% would help sentiment. A durable change requires more than a few basis points.

No thesis-changing primary research was released this week. The World Gold Council's November 9 monitor highlighted strong U.S. economic data, persistent inflation and renewed rate-hike risk as near-term headwinds for gold. That complicates the safe-haven thesis, but it is macro interpretation — not new gold demand evidence.

Silver's deficit and industrial-demand arguments remain recycled from the 2026 World Silver Survey. Price movement alone is not new fundamental evidence.

Bitcoin: The market moved below recent buyers' cost basis while ETF and U.S. demand weakened.

Stablecoins: A $14.2 billion contraction exposed a meaningful withdrawal of crypto liquidity.

S&P 500: October participation broadened, but long-term concentration remains intact.

Real estate: Mortgage rates declined for four weeks but remain nearly one percentage point above last year.

Gold and silver: No fresh evidence justified changing the thesis.

1. Whether Bitcoin reclaims $75,600–$77,500 or breaks below $73,000.

2. Whether stablecoin supply returns to growth — the clearest early sign of fresh crypto liquidity.

3. Whether S&P 500 equal-weight outperformance continues beyond one month while mortgage rates approach 7%.